Stanislaus Nonprofit Funding: A Solution For Hidden Homeless Crisis Affecting Up To 8,000 Students

The issue of homelessness in Stanislaus County is complex and multifaceted, with various data sources providing different perspectives on the scope of the problem. This analysis aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the situation, highlighting discrepancies in reporting, recent trends, ongoing efforts to address the issue and proposed solutions.

Point-in-Time (PIT) Count Data:

The PIT count, conducted annually in Stanislaus County, provides a snapshot of homelessness on a single night.

Recent PIT data shows:

2020: 2,107 homeless individuals
2022: 1,857 (likely underreported due to cold weather and fewer volunteers)
2023: 2,091
2024: 2,052

The 2024 PIT count identified 980 unsheltered individuals and 1,072 sheltered people in the county. Modesto, the county seat, consistently has the highest number of homeless individuals, with 1,622 counted in 2024.

Discrepancies in Reporting:

A significant discrepancy exists between the PIT count (HUD) and the number of homeless students (McKinney-Vento Act) reported by the Stanislaus County Office of Education (SCOE):

(Latest Data Available from SCOE)

2017 PIT count: 1,661 homeless individuals
2016-2017 school year: 3,951 homeless students (SCOE data)
2018 estimate: 6,500 homeless students (SCOE estimate for Operation Backpack)
2022 Homeless Housing, Assistance and Prevention (HHAP) program Application for Stanislaus report 4,500 people access homeless services annually

This discrepancy is primarily due to different definitions of homelessness and data collection methods.

Definitions of Homelessness:

HUD Definition (used for PIT counts):
- Literally homeless (on the streets or in shelters)
- At imminent risk of homelessness
- Homeless under other federal statutes
- Fleeing/attempting to flee domestic violence
McKinney-Vento Act Definition (used by schools):
- Includes those sharing housing due to economic hardship or loss of housing
- Living in motels, hotels, trailer parks, or camping grounds due to lack of alternative accommodations
- Living in emergency or transitional shelters
- Abandoned in hospitals
- Living in cars, parks, public spaces, abandoned buildings, substandard housing, bus or train stations

The broader McKinney-Vento definition captures a larger population experiencing housing instability, leading to higher numbers reported by schools. Based on the historical data and ratios provided, we can estimate the number of homeless students in Stanislaus County for 2024 using two different approaches:

Using the 2017 ratio (2016-2017 SCOE data to 2017 PIT count):
Ratio = 3,951 / 1,661 ≈ 2.38
Estimated homeless students in 2024 = 2,052 * 2.38 ≈ 4,884
Using the 2018 ratio (2018 SCOE estimate to 2017 PIT count):
Ratio = 6,500 / 1,661 ≈ 3.91
Estimated homeless students in 2024 = 2,052 * 3.91 ≈ 8,023

Therefore, based on these calculations, the estimated number of homeless students in Stanislaus County for 2024 could range from approximately 4,884 to 8,023.

It's important to note that these are rough estimates based on historical ratios and may not account for changes in demographics, economic conditions, or other factors that could influence homelessness among students. The actual number could fall within this range or potentially be outside of it, depending on current circumstances.

Stanislaus County's Homeless Numbers May Be Higher Than You Think

In recent years, Stanislaus County has reported its homeless population based on the annual Point-in-Time (PIT) count, a single-night survey required by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. However, a closer look at the county's own reports to the state reveals a startling discrepancy that suggests the true extent of homelessness in our community may be significantly underreported.

The 2022 PIT count identified 1,857 individuals experiencing homelessness in Stanislaus County. This number, while concerning, pales in comparison to the figures the county reported in its application for state funding through the Homeless Housing, Assistance and Prevention (HHAP) program.

In this application, Stanislaus County painted a much more comprehensive picture of homelessness:

1. An estimated 4,500 people access homeless services annually - more than double the PIT count.

2. Approximately 1,500 people become homeless for the first time each year.

3. On any given night, about 1,900 individuals are experiencing homelessness (1,000 unsheltered and 900 sheltered) - this alone is higher than the PIT count.

4. Only about 600 people exit homelessness into permanent housing annually.

These numbers reveal a crisis far larger than what the PIT count suggests. So why the discrepancy?

The PIT count, while valuable, has significant limitations. It's a snapshot of a single night, often conducted in harsh winter conditions when many homeless individuals might seek temporary shelter with friends or family. It may miss those in hard-to-reach areas or those who don't appear visibly homeless.

In contrast, the numbers reported for state funding consider the ebb and flow of homelessness over an entire year. They account for those who may experience short periods of homelessness, those who repeatedly cycle in and out of housing, and those who access services but might not be visible during a nighttime count.

This discrepancy raises important questions:

1. Are we allocating enough resources to address the true scale of homelessness in our community?

2. How can we better understand and address the needs of those experiencing short-term or cyclical homelessness?

3. Are current interventions sufficient when only 600 out of 4,500 people accessing homeless services find permanent housing each year?

It's crucial for our community to understand that homelessness is not just about the visible individuals we see on the streets. It's a complex, often hidden crisis affecting thousands more in our county.

Causes of Homelessness:

The 2023 PIT count revealed several primary reasons for homelessness:

Asked to leave (27%)
Domestic violence (26%)
Inability to pay rent/mortgage (23%)
Job loss (19%)
Substance abuse (16%)
Illness (16%)

Affordable Housing Crisis:

California has the highest housing wage in the country.

In Stanislaus County:

Fair Market Rent for a two-bedroom home: $1,224/month (2021)
Annual income needed to afford this: $48,960
Hours of minimum wage work needed per week: 67

Current Initiatives and Challenges:

Governor Newsom's Executive Order:
- Directs state agencies to urgently address homeless encampments
- Encourages local governments to adopt similar policies
Encampment Resolution Funding (ERF) program:
- Invested $737 million for 109 projects in California
- Transitioned nearly 21,000 people out of homelessness
Local efforts in Stanislaus County:
- Area Command Division
- Homeless Engagement and Response Unit (HEART)
- Community Health and Assistance Team (CHAT)
- Crime Reduction Team (CRT)
Shelter capacity:
- Berberian Shelter: 211 beds (consistently at full capacity)
- ACES County Shelter: 182 beds (fully occupied each night)
- Modesto Gospel Mission: sign up or call for availability (faith based)

Challenges and Concerns:

Underreporting: The PIT count likely underestimates the true extent of homelessness due to its narrow definition and methodology.
Hidden Homelessness: Many families with school-age children are part of the "hidden homeless" population, often doubling up with friends or relatives or living in motels.
Insufficient Resources: Despite significant investments, there's a lack of confidence in the combined ability of all shelters within Stanislaus County to meet the need.
Long-term Solutions: There's a need to focus on addressing root causes rather than just providing temporary shelter.

Recommendations:

Develop a Targeted Nonprofit Grant Program:

Create a dedicated funding stream specifically for smaller, local nonprofits like the Help Is Hope Foundation and the West Modesto Community Collaborative. This program could leverage the existing $2,884,000 Homeless Housing, Assistance and Prevention (HHAP) grant funding available in Stanislaus County, as well as seek additional state and federal resources.

Key components of this program could include:

Expand and Strengthen Nonprofit Partnerships:
- Support SHARE's "whatever it takes" philosophy and encourage other nonprofits to adopt similar flexible, personalized approaches.
- Leverage the Stanislaus Community System of Care (StanCSOC) to coordinate and align homelessness services.
- Facilitate collaborations between organizations like SHARE, West Modesto Community Collaborative, Help Is Hope Foundation, and local agencies such as the Modesto Police Department's CHAT, Downtown Streets Team, Turning Point, and Stanislaus County CARE.
Implement Innovative Housing Solutions:
- Encourage local nonprofits to apply for the county's $2,884,000 HHAP grant to develop innovative housing projects, including permanent and transitional housing solutions.
- Support the construction and operation of a comprehensive day center offering educational programs, vocational rehabilitation services, and a food recycling program.
Address Hidden Homelessness and Improve Safety:
- Develop outreach programs to identify and assist those living in garages, closets, or overcrowded conditions.
- Create educational programs about the dangers of overcrowded living conditions and provide fire safety equipment and education for those in unconventional spaces.
Focus on Prevention and Root Causes:
- Develop early intervention programs with schools to identify and support at-risk youth and families.
- Address root causes of homelessness such as eviction, domestic violence, and inability to pay rent through targeted initiatives.
Utilize Data-Driven Approaches:
- Improve data collection and analysis to ensure effective resource allocation and service delivery.
Expand Comprehensive Services:
- Support and encourage holistic approaches to addressing homelessness, including healthcare navigation, temporary housing assistance, and supplying basic necessities.
Promote Community Integration and Education:
- Develop programs to integrate homeless individuals back into the community.
- Create initiatives to reduce stigma and increase community support for homeless individuals and families.
Establish a Dedicated Funding Stream for Smaller Nonprofits:
- Create a targeted grant program leveraging existing HHAP funding and additional resources.
- Offer funding and technical assistance for capacity building, innovative projects, and collaborative initiatives.

By implementing these recommendations, Stanislaus County can develop more effective, tailored solutions to address homelessness, leveraging the expertise of local organizations and fostering a collaborative, comprehensive approach to this complex issue.

By focusing on these local initiatives and supporting the innovative approaches of Stanislaus County nonprofits, the community can develop more effective, tailored solutions to address homelessness and its related challenges. This approach would leverage the expertise of organizations like West Modesto Community Collaborative and El Concilio in areas such as family counseling, support groups, and community outreach, while also tapping into the potential of newer organizations like Help Is Hope Foundation with their flexible, personalized approach to serving the homeless population.

Addressing homelessness in Stanislaus County requires a comprehensive approach that considers the full spectrum of housing instability, focuses on prevention and long-term solutions, and provides adequate resources to address the root causes of homelessness.

As we move forward, it's essential that we look beyond the PIT count and consider more comprehensive data when making decisions about homeless services and interventions. Only by acknowledging the full scope of the problem can we hope to develop effective solutions.

Stanislaus County residents deserve transparency about the true extent of homelessness in our community. It's time for a more honest conversation about this crisis and a renewed commitment to addressing it in all its complexity.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Summary

It's challenging to give a single, definitive number for the total homeless population in Stanislaus County due to different counting methods and definitions. However, we can piece together a more comprehensive picture:

Point-in-Time (PIT) Count: The most recent PIT count in 2024 identified 2,052 homeless individuals in Stanislaus County. This is a snapshot of a single night and likely underestimates the total homeless population.
Annual Service Users: According to the Homeless Housing, Assistance and Prevention (HHAP) Round 4 application, an estimated 4,500 people access homeless services annually in Stanislaus County. This number is significantly higher than the PIT count and provides a more comprehensive view over the course of a year.
Student Homelessness: The Stanislaus County Office of Education (SCOE) estimated 6,500 homeless students in 2018 for Operation Backpack. This number is based on the broader McKinney-Vento Act definition of homelessness, which includes students living in motels, hotels, trailer parks, or sharing housing due to economic hardship.
Newly Homeless: The HHAP application also estimates that approximately 1,500 people become homeless for the first time each year in Stanislaus County.

Considering these different metrics, a realistic combined total of homelessness in Stanislaus County could be in the range of 6,500 to 8,000 individuals when accounting for:

Those captured in the PIT count
Additional individuals accessing services throughout the year
Homeless students and their families who may not be captured in other counts
Newly homeless individuals

It's important to note that there may be some overlap between these categories, but this range provides a more comprehensive view of the homeless situation in Stanislaus County than the PIT count alone. The higher numbers reflect the broader definitions of homelessness and account for those experiencing housing instability over the course of a year, rather than just on a single night

For more information on homelessness services in Stanislaus County, you can visit the

References:

2020 Stanislaus County Point-in-Time Homeless Count Results

Governor Newsom Orders State Agencies to Address Encampments

More Homeless Counted in Stanislaus County Over Last Year

2024 Stanislaus County PIT Homeless Count Executive Summary

4 Reasons Stanislaus Homeless Students Outnumber Their Homeless Population

California Gov. Newsom Awards Nearly $131M to Clear Homeless Encampments

Stanislaus County Office of Education - Homeless Education

Point in Time Survey Sees Fewer Homeless in Stanislaus County

2023 Stanislaus County Point-in-Time Homeless Count Executive Summary

Point in Time Survey Sees Fewer Homeless in Stanislaus County